Livelihoods: According to the global rating agency, Moody’s Investors Services, the second wave of coronavirus infections in India presents a risk to its growth forecast of 13.7 percent for 2021-22. The reason: The re-imposition of lockdown and other restrictions will curb economic activity and could dampen market and consumer sentiment.
“The announced countermeasures to combat the second wave—some of which are due to remain in place at least until the end of April—risk weakening the economic recovery. However, the targeted nature of containment measures and rapid progress on vaccinating the population will mitigate the credit-negative impact,” the rating agency said.
India has been registering more than one lakh COVID-19 cases consecutively for the last 10 days, pushing the active caseload past the one million mark. Maharashtra, Delhi, Chhattisgarh, Punjab, and Haryana have imposed night curfews, and partial lockdowns, and reduced working hours in offices to limit the spread of the virus.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently upgraded its FY22 growth projection for India to 12.5 percent from the 11.5 percent estimated in January, but it hasn’t factored in the country’s ongoing second wave of COVID-19 and its downside.
Moody’s expects the impact on economic activity will be less severe than that seen in 2020, given the focus on micro-containment zones to deal with the current wave of infections, as opposed to a nationwide lockdown. The rating agency also said that vaccination will be a key element in managing the second wave as authorities balance virus management against maintaining economic activity.
Read this article to know how labour rights have worsened post-lockdown.